Sunday, October 17, 2004

Monday's Notes

Mainly notes today, but info of use and interest:

1) Re: Sinclair airing 1 hour swift-boat vets anti-kerry video. Since contacting Sinclair's advertisers appears to be working (advertisers are starting to pull out of Sinclair stations), we should keep up the pressure. Monday's New York Times Article on the effect.


UPDATE: The link for Sinclair advertisers I gave last time is no longer up. That's because they've now made a SUPER-EASY email page, where you write your own or use their template and it gets sent to ALL THE ADVERTISERS!!! Please forward this link around:
http://www.grassrootsnation.com/sinclair/

And remember, sell any Sinclair Broadcasting Group (SBGI) stock you have (and tell your mutual funds to do so also). The stock is falling!
Chart

2) LINKS OF INTEREST

ANOTHER ELECTORAL VOTE SITE - as detailed as electoral-vote.com but much prettier and has additional information such as "Will Nader be on this state's ballot?" etc.
http://race2004.net/

JON STEWART ON CNN'S CROSSFIRE (Quicktime Video). I previously hailed Jon Stewart as a god. Where can I go from there? In his Crossfire appearence, he was NOT FUNNY AT ALL. He was deadly serious. Though he did call Tucker Carlson a d**k. See Jon SLAM the news media!


NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE on Bush. Wow. I've only read part of it but... scary scary man. PASS the link around!


3) On polls and visiting polling sites.
DO NOT SWEAT THE POLL SITES!

For example, on electoral-vote.com, if there are 3 polls for a state taken during the same period, regardless of if they are independant, republican, or democrat run, he only picks one, based on the middle-date of the poll. So early last week, there was a strong Bush win in OH on that map. This poll was from a GOP firm, that ALWAYS skews to Bush, from Oct 11. 2 other polls showed a Kerry win but were not included since the GOP poll was 1 day more recent. Those other polls simply disappear.

I've already gone through my panic days with these polls. I don't worry about it so much now, cuz it keeps flipping around every few days. Consistent trends are the most important thing.
Also Gallup is at it again. While 5 other major national polls for the same exact dates all show statistical ties (within the margin of error) Gallup puts Bush up 8 points. Gallup is just a mess, since among registered voters they show a tie, but they altered their Likely Voter model yet again to make it a big Bush win. No other organization is doing this.

http://2.004k.com/national/
http://2.004k.com/tracking/

BOTTOM LINE: The bottom line reccomendation is to work the campaign like you were 8 points down (very doable but requires ground work).

Scott





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