Sunday, September 05, 2004

Poll Crazy: Bush led Gore in every poll leading to Election Day

For more perspective on recent poll scares:
(from a nice diary at Daily Kos)

In 2000, from October all the way to Election day, Bush led Gore by as little as 2 and as much as 13 percentage points in almost every single poll (see Polling Report).

For instance, in the Gallup Poll (the most well-known of them all) Oct1 - Nov5:
Gore trailed bush by an average of 5% (standard deviation 3.5 for statistic mongerers)

Funny that on Election day, as you might remember, Gore won the popular vote
Gore: 48.38% Bush: 47.87% Nader (The Jerk): 2.7%

So there you have it. Polls, Schmolls? Statistical aberration? Who knows. That's for pollsters and statisticians to decide.

But it does put things in perspective.

That doesn't mean everything is okey-dokey, of course. People still need to get out the Vote.


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